MACRO FIRESIDE | OCTOBER 26, 2026
The net loss of $80.7 billion looks, yes looks, staggering but first reads can be misleading, as I have learned over the years.
So, here are some specifics which caught my eye. First-half 2026 revenue spiked to $16.3 billion, about 14 times the year-earlier figure, and operating earnings came in at $974 million in the June quarter. The latter figure is better understood by looking at the declining share of compute and infrastructure expenses as a percentage of revenue. In the first half of 2025, those expenses were double revenues (201%); in the first half of 2026, they were down to 55%. In the June quarter alone, the figure was 48%. I would also note that the six-month operating loss was $693 million and that the staggering net loss was largely driven by noncash revaluations of financing instruments.
To me, what we see in the S-1 is genuine commercial progress, reflecting improved operating economics. One shouldn’t let the valuation debate obscure that.
That being said, it is not without risks. Anthropic is committing to computing capacity years ahead, with little idea what customer demand and pricing will look like then. Moreover, some obligations are fixed while most revenue is pay-as-you-go. One cannot blame them for it entirely, because AI’s future demand is widely seen as huge but hard to put a number on. Anthropic has not offered a conventional total addressable market (TAM) estimate, though it does point to more than $40 trillion in economic value generated by knowledge workers worldwide in 2025. That is not the same as potential revenue for Anthropic. I wonder whether the reaction to SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion TAM estimate had anything to do with the way this was presented.
The governance provisions also deserve a closer look. A founder-controlled entity will wield 50.1% of general voting power and a separate trust will generally appoint most directors.
No IPO price range has been disclosed. The $1.5 trillion valuation being discussed is speculation, not a price.
I’ll return to the infrastructure commitments, and what they imply for returns, in a follow-up.
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