Hot!
Headline NFP 162k printed hot vs ~31k average over the prior 12 months, and June/July revised up a combined +55k (July flips from -23k to +21k, wiping out the two months of losses).
U-3 unchanged at 4.1%; participation ticked up to 61.6%. AHE +0.3% m/m (+3.1% y/y); workweek edged up to 34.4 hours. Breadth improved: private diffusion 55.6.
Gains led by food services & drinking places +59k (!), local government education +42k (!), construction +22k, manufacturing +16k; information -23k was the notable loser.
Household side firm too — part-time for economic reasons fell 414k.
Statistically significant print (>122k threshold) per my work (”well north of 150k”) and strength that leans hawkish into next week’s CPI rather than easing the Fed’s path.
Post Aug payrolls, the market is pricing in a 60% chance of a 09/16 hike and 38 bp of hikes from now through end of the year.
What am I thinking here? The establishment could make an argument that jobs growth is happening without accompanying inflation. A convenient plug there is productivity — which some attribute to AI.
Ultimately, it is about what the markets think.
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#NFP #Employment #Fed #Warsh #Waller