FOMC Statement—Initial Read
Two dissents caught my attention. Waller and Miran both voted to cut 25bp today. They lost.
Powell and eight others held rates. That’s what actually happened.
What the Statement Says
Inflation is “somewhat elevated” - same language, no softening.
Jobs: “Job gains have remained low” but the Fed held anyway.
New line: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”
My Read
The Fed held despite two members wanting to ease. That’s the committee demonstrating patience, which is what I positioned for.
Dissents are notable but they don’t make policy. The majority held rates. The inflation language didn’t soften. If June cuts were a done deal, you’d expect the statement to signal that more clearly.
The “elevated uncertainty” language could cut either way—it’s a cover to stay patient OR justification to move if data deteriorates.
What I Got Right
Powell didn’t cut today when he could have. The majority chose patience despite weak job gains. That’s what I positioned for.
What’s Still Uncertain
The dissents tell you there’s real internal debate. Waller doesn’t typically vote dovish. That the debate exists means June isn’t off the table—it depends on what the data does from here.
Holding My Positions for Now
We await Powell’s presser. That’s where we’ll get more color on what the dissents mean and how the majority is thinking about timing.