Going into the FOMC Statement

I’m Not Changing Anything Before the Statement

About fifteen minutes to FOMC. My book’s positioned for a Fed that stays cautious longer than June pricing suggests.

Here’s why I’m comfortable holding through the announcement.

The Market’s Priced for Relief That Isn’t Coming

Duration trade assumes Powell blinks on inflation to save employment. That worked in 2023. It’s the wrong read now.

Inflation isn’t behaving. Employment’s fine. Powell has no reason to rush, and every reason to sound patient today.

The statement won’t say “rate cut coming soon.” It’ll say some version of “we’re monitoring data” while the market keeps hoping for June.

What I’m Watching After

Not the initial reaction—that’s noise. I’m watching whether the statement reinforces or undermines the market’s rate path expectations over the next 24-48 hours.

If the language hardens even slightly, the repricing gets interesting. If it stays neutral or softens, I was wrong and I’ll adjust.

But going in? I’m betting Powell disappoints the doves.

The Trade

Long dollar against anything that’s priced for imminent cuts. Short duration where appropriate. Holding gold as the chaos hedge because policy uncertainty isn’t going anywhere.

Statement drops in ~15. We’ll know soon enough.