Oil (still) runs the world!
Exactly a month ago, on the third of February 2026, I wrote here on Substack about the looming Iran risk
“.... the scenario for higher oil should also be imagined.
While the supply from the U.S. and Venezuela is growing, the Middle East is a powder keg. Tensions with Iran reached multi-month highs last week — but today, Trump signaled that Tehran is “seriously talking,” and WTI gave back 4.7%. The market is pricing out the geopolitical premium. That is precisely what makes the short trade look attractive right now — and precisely what makes it dangerous if talks collapse. Iran produces roughly 3.3 to 4.2 million bpd. If the U.S. moves from trade wars with India to a kinetic conflict with Iran, or if the Strait of Hormuz (where 20% of global oil flows) is even slightly disrupted, the ~1.2 million bpd India is shifting away from Russia may seem like a drop in the bucket. In a “Strait of Hormuz Closure” scenario, oil price could surge to triple digits, regardless of what India buys.”
That has come home to roost now!
