The India Pivot: Short Oil Looks Clean. It Isn’t.
India just told the world it's done buying Russian oil. The market went short on the news. I think that's the wrong trade — or at least, the wrong reason to make it. The Modi-Trump deal is deflationary on paper. But India isn't cutting demand. It's switching suppliers. And while everyone is pricing in the peace dividend, they're pricing out the one risk that sends oil to triple digits overnight: Tehran.
Today's WTI selloff on India diplomacy is exactly the kind of
repricing that makes tail risks expensive. Why the "Short Oil" trade is a high-stakes gamble.
13:34 02/03/26
Energy up ~2.2% and Tech the worst performer on the day down ~3.2%
But bond yields are flat!
What does that tell you?
#EnergyMarkets #bond
13:06 02/03/26
WTI Crude at $63.28, up 1.8% on the day
12:12 PM 02/03/26 *** Breaking ***
US Official: US military shot down an Iranian drone that approached US Navy aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea