The Macro Fireside

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August 2026

Saying it is good. Walking it is better.
The market spent the past ninety minutes repricing Kevin Warsh's convictions.
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Jackson Hole ’26 Curtain Raiser - The Shadow Agenda.
The official agenda is about financial innovation, but the market wants to hear more and that is about the Fed.
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A single stock do not an asset class make.
NVIDIA’s $500 billion financing platforms are a single-name exposure in infrastructure clothing.
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Buying debt with debt?
Well, at best you may reschedule it but can never extinguish it.
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July CPI was largely a neutral print
But it lets everyone stand their ground, if they like.
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July Payrolls and the Labor Market Conundrum
One education line, one sporting event, and a diffusion index above 50.
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No headline, all signal — three sessions to round-trip an intervention
Not about Japan we said. Markets seem to be saying it now.
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The FIMA proposal isn’t about Japan
It’s about Treasury securities. Bessent’s push to upsize the Fed’s backstop is less about the yen than about deepening the dollar system’s collateral…
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All the world’s a token?
Part 2 of 2: The challengers and the challenged.
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All the world’s a token?
Part 1 of 2: How everything in our world can be tagged and traded.
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July 2026

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