The Macro Fireside

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March 2026

The Geopolitics and the Realpolitik of the Iran War — A Macro Trader’s Read
Energy chokepoints, insurance markets, and the strategic bargaining behind the current escalation A VLCC sat anchored outside Hormuz — physically free…
 • S G
48 Hours of Power: A Line in the Sand or Maximum Negotiation?
Trump’s ultimatum introduces a binary the ceasefire thesis did not have yesterday. Here is what each outcome means — and what to watch. Twenty-six hours…
 • S G
The Corridor Has Narrowed: Trump’s Truth Social Post Confirms the Off-Ramp
At 5:13 PM on March 20, the thesis this publication put to press yesterday morning found its public confirmation — not through back-channel diplomacy…
 • S G
The Narrowing Corridor: Why a Ceasefire Is Closer Than the Headlines Suggest
Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. It changed the terms of access — selectively opening it to China, India, Russia, and Turkey while holding it…
 • S G
Fed Didn’t Move Its Dot Plot. The World Did.
A Practitioner’s Read on the March 2026 FOMC Statement, SEP, and What Comes Next At 2:00 PM today, the Federal Reserve revised its 2026 inflation…
 • S G
Oil (still) runs the world!
Exactly a month ago, on the third of February 2026, I wrote here on Substack about the looming Iran risk
 • S G
Fire Over Gulf’s Safe Havens: Dubai, Iran and the Crosshairs
Battlefield Perspectives from a Portfolio Manager Markets haven’t traded yet. Here’s how to think before the bell. Iran’s retaliatory barrage has hit…
 • S G

February 2026

The AI, PPI Conundrum
When Structural Displacement and Sticky Inflation Arrive from the Same Source. January PPI came in at +0.5% MoM this morning, beating estimates, with…
 • S G
Caution: Dollar Ahead! — Part 2 of 4: Cross-Asset Implications of Dollar Weakness
Four catalysts since January 26 have deepened the thesis. Here is where to act across equities, credit, rates, FX, and commodities. The dollar has…
 • S G
Tariff Imbroglio — The Surface and the Floor
What the aggregate numbers conceal — and where the actual trade is. Tariffs are being read as an inflation story. They’re really a distribution story…
 • S G
4Q25 GDP: The Shutdown Masked It. Private Demand Didn't
4Q25 GDP at 1.4% misreads the economy. Real final sales to private purchasers grew 2.4% — and inflation is the story the Fed is actually watching.
 • S G
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