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May ’26 Employment Report: The Re-Rate Arrives
Payrolls are running at 188K a month, not stalling. But the composition is narrow, the hike is priced for December, and the market just repriced by…
Jun 5
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AI Wrappers and the Coming Compression — A PM Perspective
What remains and what gives, as a market practitioner sifts through the AI complex
Jun 3
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May 2026
The Rupredicament — A Steadier Hand for Delhi
A practitioner’s view of how Delhi should sequence its response to the Rupee crisis. The shock has two legs — a terms-of-trade hit from oil and a…
May 11
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Beneath the headline: what April payrolls actually said
+115k beat consensus, but the body of the report tells a different story. The two BLS surveys disagree, the gain is in two acyclical sectors, and the…
May 8
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Mind the Gap
Funding 30-Month Assets with 30-Year Paper
May 4
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April 2026
The Court Draws a Line on Race—but Leaves the Problem Unresolved
A 6–3 ruling tightens Section 2. The real fight moves to the states.
Apr 30
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The Dunkirk Option: Why America Should Declare Victory and Walk
Iran wants America in a quagmire. The asymmetric costs say walk.
Apr 24
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Hormuz on the Clock
(First published on LinkedIn earlier this afternoon)
Apr 7
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March 2026
The Geopolitics and the Realpolitik of the Iran War — A Macro Trader’s Read
Energy chokepoints, insurance markets, and the strategic bargaining behind the current escalation A VLCC sat anchored outside Hormuz — physically free…
Mar 25
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48 Hours of Power: A Line in the Sand or Maximum Negotiation?
Trump’s ultimatum introduces a binary the ceasefire thesis did not have yesterday. Here is what each outcome means — and what to watch. Twenty-six hours…
Mar 22
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The Corridor Has Narrowed: Trump’s Truth Social Post Confirms the Off-Ramp
At 5:13 PM on March 20, the thesis this publication put to press yesterday morning found its public confirmation — not through back-channel diplomacy…
Mar 20
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The Narrowing Corridor: Why a Ceasefire Is Closer Than the Headlines Suggest
Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. It changed the terms of access — selectively opening it to China, India, Russia, and Turkey while holding it…
Mar 19
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