Archive - The Macro Fireside

Oil (still) runs the world!

Exactly a month ago, on the third of February 2026, I wrote here on Substack about the looming Iran risk

3 hrs ago • S G

Fire Over Gulf’s Safe Havens: Dubai, Iran and the Crosshairs

Battlefield Perspectives from a Portfolio Manager Markets haven’t traded yet. Here’s how to think before the bell. Iran’s retaliatory barrage has hit…

Mar 2 • S G

February 2026

The AI, PPI Conundrum

When Structural Displacement and Sticky Inflation Arrive from the Same Source. January PPI came in at +0.5% MoM this morning, beating estimates, with…

Feb 27 • S G

Caution: Dollar Ahead! — Part 2 of 4: Cross-Asset Implications of Dollar Weakness

Four catalysts since January 26 have deepened the thesis. Here is where to act across equities, credit, rates, FX, and commodities. The dollar has…

Feb 23 • S G

Tariff Imbroglio — The Surface and the Floor

What the aggregate numbers conceal — and where the actual trade is. Tariffs are being read as an inflation story. They’re really a distribution story…

Feb 22 • S G

4Q25 GDP: The Shutdown Masked It. Private Demand Didn't

4Q25 GDP at 1.4% misreads the economy. Real final sales to private purchasers grew 2.4% — and inflation is the story the Fed is actually watching.

Feb 20 • S G

Cool Enough to Hope, Not Cool Enough to Cut

January 2026 CPI — My Key Takeaways Good CPI print but keeps the Fed on hold through Q1 at minimum. Powell needs consecutive prints showing services…

Feb 13 • S G

January 2026 Payrolls: Macro + Market Framework

Strong Print. Heavy Asterisks. January payroll growth of +130,000 was well above the consensus estimate near 65,000, with the unemployment rate…

Feb 11 • S G

Century Bonds and the Battle for Duration

What a single bond issue reveals about the yield curve Alphabet’s first foray into century-maturity sterling bonds, launched as part of a broader…

Feb 10 • S G

All capex is not created equal

A framework for what matters Between MSFT, META, GOOGL, and AMZN, the 2026 capex budget hits $640B. Add Oracle's $71B transformation and the GenAI firms…

Feb 9 • S G

Alphabet: A fantastic money machine and spectacular spender

Buying the Kitchen! Alphabet just crossed $400 billion in annual revenue, but the market is fixated on a different number: $185 billion in 2026 CapEx…

Feb 5 • S G

The Oil Market’s "Tale of Two Crises"

The India Pivot: Short Oil Looks Clean. It Isn’t. India just told the world it's done buying Russian oil. The market went short on the news. I think…

Feb 3 • S G

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