The Macro Fireside

June 2026

"The King's Ransom" — Caution: Dollar Ahead! Part 3 of 4

Since Part 2, the dollar has risen, not fallen — the cycle running against the structural tide. Part 3 goes to the engine room: the federal debt, the…

Jun 23 • S G

1

May ’26 Employment Report: The Re-Rate Arrives

Payrolls are running at 188K a month, not stalling. But the composition is narrow, the hike is priced for December, and the market just repriced by…

Jun 5 • S G

AI Wrappers and the Coming Compression — A PM Perspective

What remains and what gives, as a market practitioner sifts through the AI complex

Jun 3 • S G

May 2026

The Rupredicament — A Steadier Hand for Delhi

A practitioner’s view of how Delhi should sequence its response to the Rupee crisis. The shock has two legs — a terms-of-trade hit from oil and a…

May 11 • S G

1

Beneath the headline: what April payrolls actually said

+115k beat consensus, but the body of the report tells a different story. The two BLS surveys disagree, the gain is in two acyclical sectors, and the…

May 8 • S G

Mind the Gap

Funding 30-Month Assets with 30-Year Paper

May 4 • S G

April 2026

The Court Draws a Line on Race—but Leaves the Problem Unresolved

A 6–3 ruling tightens Section 2. The real fight moves to the states.

Apr 30 • S G

The Dunkirk Option: Why America Should Declare Victory and Walk

Iran wants America in a quagmire. The asymmetric costs say walk.

Apr 24 • S G

1

Hormuz on the Clock

(First published on LinkedIn earlier this afternoon)

Apr 7 • S G

1

March 2026